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Proxy war

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In political science, a proxy war is an armed conflict where at least one side is directed or supported by an external third-party power. The group receiving this foreign assistance is known as the proxy. This proxy can be a nation-state government or a conventional military force. In some cases, both sides in a conflict receive aid from different third-party countries. When this happens, both fighting sides are considered proxies. The relationship between a sponsor and a proxy is usually a long-term geopolitical connection. The sponsor provides the necessary funding and materiel, which refers to military equipment, to help the proxy fight and sustain a war.

Soviet advisers planning military operations Angola
Soviet advisers planning military operations Angola

While sponsors provide support, they often face what experts call a principal-agent problem. This occurs when a sponsor is unable to fully control the actions of the proxy they are funding. This means the proxy might make decisions that do not align with the sponsor's original goals. Proxy wars can also take the form of civil wars. This was seen during the Cold War in both the Korean War and the Vietnam War. These conflicts demonstrate how external interests can become deeply involved in the internal struggles of other nations.

History shows that proxy warfare has been used for many centuries. During classical antiquity and the Middle Ages, non-state proxies were often introduced into internal conflicts. These were frequently irregular armies used to further a sponsor's interests in a specific region. For example, the Byzantine Empire used proxy warfare as a tool of foreign policy. They would cultivate intrigue among rivals and back them when they fought each other. During the Hundred Years' War, France and England both supported privateers. These were independent sailors who targeted the other side's merchant shipping. Similarly, the Ottoman Empire used Barbary pirates as proxies to harass Western European powers in the Mediterranean Sea.

In the early twentieth century, the nature of proxy warfare changed. States began using non-state proxies, such as insurgent groups or national-liberation movements, to undermine their rivals. During the First World War, the British government helped organize the Arab Revolt to weaken the Ottoman Empire. After the Spanish Civil War, proxy wars often gained a strong ideological dimension. In that conflict, Italy and Nazi Germany supported fascist ideologies, while the Soviet Union supported communist ideologies. This allowed these major powers to use the conflict as a proving ground for new weapons and battlefield tactics without entering an open war with each other.

During the Cold War, the fear of nuclear holocaust drove much of the proxy warfare between the United States and the Soviet Union. Leaders believed that direct conventional warfare could lead to catastrophic nuclear destruction. Therefore, using ideological proxies became a perceived safer way to conduct hostilities. The Soviet government also found that supporting groups antagonistic to the West was a cost-effective way to combat NATO's influence. In the United States, the rise of televised media made the public more skeptical of foreign wars. This led to "war-weariness," which influenced how the U.S. chose to engage in conflicts like the Soviet-Afghan War by supplying the mujahideen.

There are several strategic reasons why a nation might choose a proxy war over a direct one. One major reason is financial. It is often much cheaper to support irregular troops or allies with obsolete equipment than to deploy a national army. Additionally, proxies usually bear the brunt of the economic damage and casualties. Nations also use proxies to avoid negative reactions from the United Nations or trading partners. Some countries may even use them to bypass peace treaties or international agreements that forbid direct warfare.

Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict
Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict

Another driver of proxy war is the security dilemma. This happens when a nation tries to install a favorable government in a third-party state. Rival nations may see this as a threat to their own security and respond by backing the opposing side. This can lead to an escalation of military and financial support from both sides. This cycle was a major factor in Cold War conflicts and is seen in the ongoing struggles between Saudi Arabia and Iran in places like Yemen and Syria. These escalations often increase the intensity and length of the fighting.

Proxy wars can have devastating impacts on local populations and infrastructure. The Soviet-Afghan War was extremely costly, costing billions of dollars and hundreds of thousands of lives. This conflict even contributed to the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. In the Middle East, the Syrian Civil War has seen more than 606,000 people killed since it began. The Yemeni Civil War also saw over 377,000 deaths by early 2022. Because external sponsors provide more resources, these wars often make it much harder for parties to reach successful diplomatic negotiations or peace talks.

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