Mikhail Budyko

Mikhail Ivanovich Budyko was a pioneering Soviet and Russian climatologist. He is recognized as one of the founders of physical climatology. This field uses the laws of physics to understand the Earth's climate. Before his work, climate studies were often qualitative, meaning they described patterns without precise math. Budyko transformed the field into a quantitative science. This means he used numbers and physical models to measure how the planet works. His research helped scientists understand how energy moves through our world.

Budyko focused on the Earth's heat balance to understand global temperatures. He developed a physical model of equilibrium to explain this process. In this model, the energy entering the Earth's system must be balanced. The Earth absorbs incoming solar radiation from the sun. To maintain balance, the Earth must re-radiate that energy back into space as thermal energy. If the incoming energy and outgoing thermal energy are equal, the temperature stays steady. This mathematical approach allowed him to calculate the Earth's temperature with new precision.

One of Budyko's most important contributions was describing Arctic amplification. In 1969, he explained how the Arctic warms faster than other parts of the world. He used the concept of ice-albedo feedback to show why this happens. Albedo refers to how much sunlight a surface reflects. Ice has a high albedo, so it reflects most solar radiation back into space. When sea ice melts, it reveals darker ocean water underneath. This dark water absorbs more heat, which causes even more ice to melt. This cycle is known as a runaway positive feedback loop.

Budyko was a prolific researcher throughout his long career. He earned his M.Sc. from the Leningrad Polytechnic Institute in 1942. He later received his doctorate in physical and mathematical sciences in 1951. Much of his work was done at the Leningrad Geophysical Observatory. He served as the director of that observatory until 1972. Later, he became the director of the Division for Climate Change Research at the State Hydrological Institute. His 1956 book, *Heat Balance of the Earth's Surface*, changed how climatologists worked globally.

His mathematical models provided specific forecasts about the future of our planet. Budyko calculated that a very small increase in solar radiation could melt the icecaps. He estimated that a few tenths of one percent increase in solar input was enough. He also studied the effects of carbon dioxide, or CO2. His models showed that a 50% increase in atmospheric CO2 could melt all polar ice. Conversely, he noted that reducing CO2 by half could lead to complete glaciation of the Earth. He even predicted that the Arctic Ocean's ice cover could melt entirely by 2050.

Many of Budyko's predictions have been supported by later scientific observations. He predicted that the global mean temperature would rise significantly between 1970 and 2019. He also estimated that about 50% of Arctic multiyear ice would disappear. Modern data has corroborated these figures. Observations show that the mean global temperature did indeed increase during that period. Furthermore, the extent of multiyear Arctic sea ice in September 2019 was about 46% smaller than it was in 1970. These numbers show how accurate his early models were.

Budyko also explored ways to manage the climate if global warming became a crisis. In 1974, he proposed the concept of artificial solar radiation management. This involves using stratospheric sulfate aerosols to reflect sunlight. These aerosols are tiny particles released into the stratosphere, the upper layer of the atmosphere. This idea is often called "Budyko's Blanket" in his honor. While he studied the potential benefits of climate change for some northern regions, he remained cautious. In 1998, while accepting the Blue Planet Prize, he noted it was difficult to conclude if warming would be globally beneficial to humans.