Global catastrophic risk

Big things can change our world.

Some events could hurt many people. These are called global risks. Other risks could hurt everyone forever. This would end our future.

Some risks come from nature. A large rock from space could hit Earth. Other risks come from people. New tools or wars could cause harm. Experts study these things. They want to help us stay safe. We can work to be ready.

Learning about these risks helps us plan.

Some events could hurt the whole world. These are called global catastrophic risks. They can cause serious damage to many people.

Some risks are even bigger. These are called existential risks. An existential risk could end the human race. It could stop our future forever.

Some risks come from nature. A large rock from space could hit Earth. A giant volcano could erupt. Even the Sun could change in a very long time. Other risks come from people. These are called anthropogenic risks. They can come from new tools or big wars. They can also come from changes to our climate.

Experts study these risks to keep us safe. They use a three-part plan. First, they try to stop the risk from happening. Second, they try to stop a small problem from growing. Third, they try to help humans stay strong during a crisis. This is called being resilient. Studying these things helps us plan for the future.

A global catastrophic risk is a very serious event. It could cause major damage to people all over the world. This might hurt our modern way of life. Some risks are even more extreme. These are called existential risks. An existential risk could end the human race entirely. It could stop our future from ever happening.

These events would be permanent and could not be fixed.

There are two main ways these risks happen. Some come from nature and are called non-anthropogenic hazards. A large asteroid or comet could hit the Earth. A supervolcano might erupt or a pandemic could spread. Even the Sun could change into a red giant star one day.

Other risks are caused by humans. These are called anthropogenic risks. They can come from new technology or ways we rule the world.

Human-made risks include many different things. New tools like artificial intelligence could be a problem. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are also things experts watch closely. Problems with how we lead the world can cause big wars. This includes things like nuclear war or using biological weapons.

Changes to our climate are another big concern. Even the way we grow food can be a risk.

Scientists face hard jobs when they study these things. They cannot run experiments to see a disaster happen. It would not be right or possible to do that. It is also very hard to predict the far future. Humans have never faced an existential risk before. This means we have no history to learn from.

We can only look at smaller events from the past.

To stay safe, experts use a three-layer plan. The first layer is prevention. This means stopping the danger before it even starts. The second layer is response. This means stopping a small problem from becoming a global one. The third layer is resilience. This means helping humans stay strong even during a hard time.

By using these layers, we can better protect our future.

A global catastrophic risk is a hypothetical event that could damage human well-being on a global scale. Such an event might endanger or destroy modern civilization. There is a specific sub-class of these risks known as existential risks. These are risks that threaten the destruction of humanity's long-term potential. An existential catastrophe could cause total human extinction. It could also result in an irreversible, permanent, and inferior state of affairs. This might include the unrecoverable collapse of civilization or a permanent, inescapable dystopia. In these scenarios, humanity is locked into a terrible state with no chance of recovery.

Researchers classify these hazards into two main groups. The first group is non-anthropogenic hazards, which are purely natural. These include asteroid or comet impacts, supervolcanic eruptions, and natural pandemics. Other natural risks include lethal gamma-ray bursts or geomagnetic storms from coronal mass ejections. In the very distant future, the Sun might become a red giant star and engulf the Earth. The second group is anthropogenic risks, which are caused by humans. These risks involve technology, governance, and environmental changes.

Anthropogenic risks are often linked to new or changing technologies. Technological risks include the creation of artificial intelligence that is misaligned with human goals. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are also significant areas of concern. Risks can also arise from insufficient or harmful global governance. This includes the possibility of nuclear holocaust or global war. Other political risks involve biological warfare using genetically modified organisms. Cyberwarfare could also destroy critical infrastructure, such as the electrical grid. Additionally, humans face risks from climate change and environmental degradation.

Studying these risks presents unique methodological challenges for scientists. It is neither possible nor ethical to conduct experiments on global catastrophes. For example, the long-term effects of nuclear war cannot be tested through experimentation. It is also difficult to predict the future over very long timescales. This is especially true for anthropogenic risks that depend on complex social systems. Furthermore, humanity has never experienced an existential catastrophe. This lack of historical precedent means we cannot learn from a track record of such events. We must rely on looking at smaller, local civilizational collapses to understand these dynamics.

There are several reasons why society may not focus enough on these risks. Economic factors play a role because risk reduction is a global public good. If one nation invests in safety, they only receive a small fraction of the benefit. Additionally, many of the benefits of risk reduction are for future generations. There is currently no mechanism to manage transactions for these future benefits. Cognitive biases also affect how people judge these threats. For instance, scope insensitivity makes it hard for people to grasp the scale of extinction. People often find it difficult to care about massive numbers or qualitative changes in existence.

To manage these threats, experts use a framework called defense in depth. This system uses three distinct layers of protection. The first layer is prevention, which aims to reduce the probability of a catastrophe. An example is taking measures to prevent the outbreak of infectious diseases. The second layer is response, which stops a catastrophe from scaling globally. An example is preventing a small nuclear exchange from becoming a full war. The third layer is resilience, which helps humanity survive even during a catastrophe. An example is increasing food security to survive a nuclear winter.

Humanity is most vulnerable when all three layers of defense are weak. This happens when we are unable to prevent, respond to, or remain resilient against a risk. In the 21st century, many academic and non-profit organizations have begun researching these issues. They work to formulate mitigation measures and advocate for safer futures. Despite this, some researchers argue that these initiatives remain underfunded. They note that more research has been done on topics like snowboarding or dung beetles than on existential risk. Protecting the future requires addressing these complex, unprecedented challenges through organized scientific study.