Pascal's wager

Pascal's wager is a famous philosophical argument regarding the choice of religious belief.

It was developed by Blaise Pascal, a French mathematician, physicist, and theologian. Pascal lived from 1623 to 1662. He first expressed this idea in his posthumous collection of notes called the *Pensées*. The wager is not a logical proof that a god exists. Instead, it is a practical argument about how to act under uncertainty. It suggests that choosing to live as if God exists is the most rational decision. This idea has influenced fields like decision theory, existentialism, and pragmatism.

The mechanism of the wager relies on the concept of a gamble. Pascal argued that human reason is limited and cannot decide if God exists. He compared the situation to a game where a coin is tossed. He claimed that participation in this choice is not optional. Because we are already "embarked" in life, we must choose a way to live. We must decide whether to live as though God exists or as though God does not. This decision involves weighing the potential gains against the potential losses of each choice.

Pascal's logic breaks the outcomes into specific categories of gain and loss. If a person wagers that God exists and is correct, they gain an infinite, happy life. In the Abrahamic tradition, this is often described as an eternity in Heaven. If they are wrong, they only suffer a finite loss. This might include sacrificing certain earthly pleasures or luxuries. However, if a person wagers that God does not exist and is wrong, they face boundless losses. This could mean an eternity in Hell. Therefore, the potential gain is infinite, while the potential stake is finite.

To explain this more formally, we can look at it through decision theory. This is a mathematical way to make choices when outcomes are uncertain. In a decision matrix, we compare the values of different actions. If God exists (G) and a person believes (B), the value is positive infinity (+∞). If God exists but a person disbelieves (¬B), the loss is infinite (-∞). If God does not exist, the believer (B) faces a finite loss (-c). The disbeliever (¬B) gains a finite amount (+c). According to this theory, the option of belief dominates because of the infinite potential gain.

Pascal recognized that many people find it difficult to simply decide to believe. He suggested that those who cannot believe should try to "convince" themselves. He proposed that acting as if one believes could actually help cure unbelief. By participating in religious practices, a person might lessen the passions that block their faith. He did not intend the wager to be a proof for atheists. Instead, he wanted to show that trying to use logic to prove God is a fallacy. His goal was to prepare the minds of those in a state of suspended judgment.

Many critics have challenged the wager since it was first published. One major critique is the argument from inconsistent revelations. This points out that there are many different belief systems in the world. Each system claims to have the exclusive truth, which makes choosing one very difficult. Another critique is the argument from inauthentic belief. This asks if faith is truly genuine if it is motivated by rewards or fear of loss. Some critics also argue that the wager assumes God will honor the bet, which is not proven.

Other famous thinkers also voiced their disagreements. The mathematician Pierre Simon de Laplace argued that the probability of the reward was too small. He believed the chance of profit was infinitely small compared to the uncertainty. The writer Voltaire called the idea "indecent and childish." He argued that having an interest in believing does not make a thing true. Despite these criticisms, the wager remains a significant topic in philosophy. It connects deeply to how humans handle the unknown and how we make life-defining decisions.