Great Divergence

The Great Divergence refers to a massive socioeconomic shift in world history. During this period, the Western world began to grow at an unprecedented rate. This included Western Europe and its settler regions in North America and Australasia. These societies overcame pre-modern constraints on growth. As a result, they emerged as the most powerful and wealthy civilizations. This shift allowed them to eclipse previously dominant civilizations in Asia. These included Qing China, Mughal India, the Ottoman Empire, and Tokugawa Japan.

Historians use different terms to describe this phenomenon. The term "Great Divergence" was coined by Samuel P. Huntington in 1996. Kenneth Pomeranz also used this term in his influential book published in 2000. Another scholar, Eric Jones, used the term "European Miracle" in 1981. Both terms describe how European countries advanced ahead of others. This movement changed the global balance of power and economic structure. It represents a fundamental change in how different parts of the world functioned.

There is significant debate regarding when this divergence actually began. Some scholars argue for a very early start. They point to the 15th or 16th centuries. These thinkers cite the Commercial Revolution and the rise of capitalism. They also look to the Renaissance and the Age of Discovery. Others suggest the roots lie in the Middle Ages. They believe institutional and psychological differences began to emerge then. However, the "California school" of historians offers a different view. They argue the most rapid divergence happened during the 19th century.

Technological advancement acted as a primary mechanism for this shift. In western Eurasia, new technologies were embraced at a very high rate. These advances occurred in mining, agriculture, and transportation. Such tools led to increased industrialization and economic complexity. One specific example is Britain's transition to coal in the 18th century. Britain used coal as an energy substitute for wood. This gave the nation a major head start in modern energy production.

Economic data provides a clear picture of these changing standards of living. Before the 19th century, parts of Asia were very highly developed. For example, the Yangtze Delta in China was extremely advanced. In the late 16th century, English silver wages were five times higher than in India. By 1600, England's silver wages were three times higher than the Yangtze Delta. Even when measuring by wheat, English wages were 15% higher than in China. By the early 18th century, English wheat wages were 2.5 times higher than in India or China.

Different regions experienced these changes at different speeds. In Europe, a "little divergence" occurred between 1300 and 1800. Real wages in the North Sea region remained relatively high. However, wages in the periphery, like Italy and Spain, began to fall. In Asia, China experienced a massive agricultural revolution during the Song dynasty. This made the Chinese economy the most advanced in the world around 1100. India was also a major trading nation with highly efficient agriculture. The divergence between northern India and Britain began in the late 17th century. This gap exploded after the 1800s due to British growth and Indian stagnation.

The Great Divergence eventually reached a peak before the First World War. This period of Western dominance continued until the early 1970s. After two decades of fluctuations, a new trend emerged in the late 1980s. This is known as the Great Convergence. Today, many developing countries are growing much faster than developed ones. They are reaching much higher economic growth rates. While their per capita GDP remains smaller for now, the gap is closing. The world is moving toward a new era of economic balance.