Emerging technologies

Emerging technologies are technical innovations that represent progressive developments within a specific field. These technologies are often characterized by radical novelty in how they are applied. They typically show relatively fast growth and a prominent impact on society. While many emerging technologies are brand new, some include older technologies finding entirely new applications. These tools are often perceived as capable of changing the status quo, or the way things currently function. Because they are still evolving, they often involve significant uncertainty and ambiguity regarding their future direction.

One important way these technologies evolve is through a process called technological convergence. Convergence occurs when previously separate systems move toward stronger interconnection and similar goals. For example, technologies involving voice, data, and video can come together to share resources. This interaction creates new efficiencies that were not possible when the systems were distinct. This movement toward a shared goal allows different fields to merge into more powerful, integrated systems. This process helps drive the development of complex new tools that can perform multiple tasks at once.

Technological growth can follow two different paths: incremental development or disruptive change. Incremental development involves small, steady improvements to existing technology. An example of this was the gradual roll-out of the DVD, which followed the earlier compact disc technology. In contrast, disruptive technologies are much more radical. A disruptive technology introduces a new method that makes the previous technology redundant. A classic historical example is how automobiles replaced horse-drawn carriages. While incremental changes build upon the past, disruptive changes can fundamentally rewrite how society operates.

Artificial intelligence, or AI, is a major field of emerging technology. AI is the branch of computer science that focuses on the study and design of intelligent agents. An intelligent agent is a system that perceives its environment and takes actions to maximize its success. John McCarthy coined the term in 1956, defining it as the study of making intelligent machines. The primary goals of AI research include reasoning, planning, learning, and natural language processing. Researchers use many tools for this, including mathematical optimization, logic, and probability.

Other significant fields include nanotechnology and robotics. Nanotechnology involves the manipulation of matter on an atomic or molecular scale. The National Nanotechnology Initiative defines it as manipulating matter with at least one dimension between 1 and 100 nanometers. At this tiny scale, quantum mechanical effects become very important. Robotics is the branch of technology dealing with the design and construction of robots. These automated machines can work in dangerous environments like factories or warehouses. Some robots, like the social humanoid robot Sophia, are even designed to resemble humans in appearance and behavior.

Medical innovations also represent a critical area of emerging technology. Gene therapy involves treating genetic diseases, with approximately 2,000 trials conducted or approved between September 1990 and January 2014. Another example is the development of cancer vaccines. For instance, the FDA approved the vaccine Provenge in April 2010 to treat advanced prostate cancer. Scientists are also researching cultured meat, also known as in vitro meat. This is animal flesh produced in a laboratory rather than from a living animal. A Dutch team even demonstrated the first in vitro beefburger in London in August 2013.

3D printing, or additive manufacturing, is another transformative technology. It allows digital blueprints to be sent instantly to a location to be produced on the spot. Some experts, such as Jeremy Rifkin, view 3D printing as part of a third industrial revolution. However, the technology has also faced controversy, such as the issues surrounding 3D printed firearms in 2013.

The rapid rise of these technologies leads to intense ethical and economic debates. Some thinkers, like Bill Joy, worry that advanced technology could be used by elites to cause mass extinction. Others, like the philosopher Nick Bostrom, warn of existential risks to humanity. Economically, analysts like Martin Ford suggest that automation and AI could lead to significant unemployment. As machines match or exceed human capability in routine and even skilled jobs, wages might fall. This could lead to a concentration of wealth among those who own the technology, potentially affecting global economic growth.