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Dvorak technique

earth science Maturity 11-13 Next article →

The Dvorak technique is a vital scientific method used to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones. This intensity refers to how strong a storm is, whether it is a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or a powerful hurricane. Because many storms occur in areas where aircraft reconnaissance is not possible, scientists cannot always fly planes into the center to measure winds directly. Instead, the Dvorak technique relies on visible and infrared satellite imagery to judge a storm's strength from space.

DvorakCDP1973
DvorakCDP1973

This system allows meteorologists to maintain a complete history of storm strengths across the entire globe.

To understand how the technique works, one must look at the specific shapes and temperatures within a storm. Analysts identify various visual patterns that correspond to different levels of strength. For example, a curved band pattern might indicate a weaker system, while an eye pattern suggests a much stronger one.

Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless
Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless

When using infrared imagery, scientists measure the temperature of the cloud tops. A key part of the process involves the eye pattern, which compares the temperature of the warm eye to the coldness of the surrounding cloud tops. The larger the temperature difference between the warm eye and the cold surrounding mass, the stronger the cyclone is considered to be.

There are several distinct patterns used to define the upper and lower bounds of a storm's intensity. The curved band pattern covers intensities from T1.0 to T4.5. The shear pattern ranges from T1.5 to T3.5. A central dense overcast, or CDO, is a large mass of clouds that can represent intensities from T2.5 to T5.0. The banding eye pattern falls between T4.0 and T4.5, while the eye pattern covers the strongest storms from T4.5 to T8.0. There is also a central cold cover, or CCC, pattern. This pattern shows thick clouds spreading out quickly, but it actually indicates that very little development is occurring in the storm.

Vernon Dvorak began developing this technique in 1969. He initially used satellite pictures of tropical cyclones located in the northwest Pacific Ocean. His early version involved matching cloud features to a model of how storms develop and decay. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, the method evolved to focus more on the measurement of cloud features. This helped scientists define the central pressure of the low-pressure area within the storm. The introduction of infrared satellite imagery further improved the system by providing a more objective way to assess storms with visible eyes.

Once a pattern is identified, scientists assign a T-number, which stands for Tropical Number. These numbers range from 1.0 for minimum intensity to 8.0 for maximum intensity.

DvorakCDP1973
DvorakCDP1973

These numbers correspond to specific wind speeds and sea level pressures. For instance, a T2.5 rating is equivalent to a minimal tropical storm with winds of about 40 mph or 65 km/h. A T5.0 rating represents a much stronger Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane. The technique also uses a Current Intensity, or CI, value. While the T-number and CI value are usually the same, the CI value is held higher for 6 to 12 hours when a storm is weakening.

Modern technology has significantly refined the Dvorak technique to reduce human error. Because human analysts can have subjective biases, researchers developed the Objective Dvorak Technique, or ODT. This version uses computer algorithms to arrive at a CI number rather than relying on human interpretation.

Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless
Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless

In 1998, the development of the objective version began, performing best with cyclones that already had eyes. By 2004, an advanced version was created to help determine the center of a storm more objectively. Automated systems now use six-hour averaging periods to ensure the intensity estimates are reliable and not just a temporary fluctuation.

Many important meteorological agencies use the Dvorak technique every day. The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and the NOAA/NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) both issue these numbers. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, also uses this system. Different countries use the technique in slightly different ways. For example, the Japan Meteorological Agency uses the infrared version, while the Indian Meteorological Department prefers visible imagery. This global use of the Dvorak technique ensures that scientists everywhere can communicate about storm strengths using a shared scientific language.

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File:DvorakCDP1973.png
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File:Subtropical Storm Andrea 2007.jpg
Subtropical Storm Andrea 2007.jpg
File:Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless.png
Haiyan 2013-11-07 1430Z IR-BD lineless.png
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