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Weather and climate · Discover & try

Why does warm water not always make a hurricane?

Reading level 5 of 5 · AdvancedChange
1 · Shorter sentences5 · More detail

Tropical cyclogenesis is an interacting dynamical process, not a checklist that guarantees a named storm. The original schematic contrasts aligned and displaced convection while keeping geometry and timing illustrative. Operational forecasts rely on observations and numerical models; this lesson supplies a conceptual explanation and no local hazard prediction.

Word help
Vertical wind shear

A change in wind speed or direction with height.

Disturbance

A pre-existing area of unsettled weather that may help organize a circulation.

Tropical cyclone

An organized rotating storm system over tropical or subtropical waters.

Watch · Try · Explain

See how it works

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Qualitative development conditions; no storm probability, track, intensity or local forecast is calculated.

What to look for
  • Change shear while keeping warm water.
  • Compare aligned and displaced convection.
  • Name another requirement besides ocean warmth.
Explain what you noticed

A new disturbance crosses very warm water but enters strong vertical wind shear. Which statement fits the lesson?

Keep this idea: Warm ocean water is one requirement; moisture, organized disturbance and low disruptive wind shear also matter.

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