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Resource curse

society Maturity 13-18 Next article →

The resource curse is a complex economic hypothesis. It is also known as the paradox of plenty. It describes a situation where countries with abundant natural resources struggle. These resources include fossil fuels and various minerals. Surprisingly, these nations often face lower economic growth. They may also have lower rates of democracy. Some experience poorer development outcomes than countries with fewer resources. Experts believe this is not an inevitable rule. Instead, it depends on specific conditions within a country. Many academics still debate the exact causes of this phenomenon.

One major mechanism is called Dutch disease. This term describes a specific economic imbalance. It occurs when one sector grows very quickly. This growth can cause other sectors to decline. The term originated after the Netherlands discovered natural gas in 1959. The country focused heavily on exporting this gas for profit. However, this caused the Dutch currency to appreciate. An appreciating currency makes a nation's other exports more expensive. Consequently, it becomes harder for other industries to compete globally. This can lead to a recession and a shrinking export economy.

This process can damage a nation's long-term capabilities. As imports become cheaper, local employment often suffers. This loss of jobs can hurt a country's manufacturing skills. Governments sometimes try to create jobs through high spending. They might fund health, welfare, or military projects. However, if this spending is corrupt or inefficient, it creates burdens. The economy also loses out on productivity gains. This is because the manufacturing sector usually grows faster than the government sector. Many nations, including Venezuela and Angola, have faced these challenges.

Another factor is revenue volatility. The prices of natural resources fluctuate wildly. For example, crude oil prices have seen massive shifts. In 1974, prices rose to about $12 per barrel. By 1986, they fell to below $10 per barrel. Between 1998 and 2008, prices jumped from $10 to $145. Such extreme changes make government planning very difficult. If a country relies heavily on one resource, it becomes vulnerable. In 2005, oil and diamonds made up 99.3% of Angola's exports. When prices drop, governments may struggle to pay debts. This can lead to broken contracts and lost social programs.

Resource extraction also often creates an economic enclave. An enclave is a sector that operates mostly in isolation. It has very few direct links to the rest of the economy. For instance, oil production generates massive revenue but adds few jobs. It does not always help other local industries grow. This can delay economic diversification. Authorities might focus only on the highly profitable resource. They may also invest in "white elephant" projects. These are large public works that are often mismanaged. Over time, the country becomes even more dependent on the resource.

Political structures also play a significant role in this curse. Researcher Bruce Bueno de Mesquita explains how autocracies behave. In an autocratic country, a ruler may use resource wealth to stay in power. They can buy the loyalty of critical support groups. They might also deny civil liberties to the rest of the population. By underfunding education and infrastructure, the ruler prevents organized opposition. A productive populace is not always a priority for such leaders. In contrast, dictatorships with few resources may need to liberalize. They might invest in healthcare and education to build a skilled workforce. Examples of successful transitions include Ghana and Taiwan.

Understanding the resource curse requires looking at many different factors. The International Monetary Fund classifies 51 countries as resource-rich. These nations derive at least 20% of their exports or revenue from nonrenewable resources. Among these, 29 are low- or lower-middle-income countries. These specific nations often show extreme dependence and low savings rates. However, there is no single consensus on the effect of resources. A 2016 meta-study found only weak support for the curse hypothesis. It found that 40% of studies showed negative effects, while 40% showed no effect. Success often depends on human capital and economic openness.

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