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Experience curve effect

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The experience curve effect describes how efficiency improves through repeated activity. It is a model used to show the relationship between production experience and cost reduction. As a company produces more of a good or service, the cost of each unit typically drops. This effect has massive implications for market share and competitive advantage. Companies that learn faster can often dominate their industries by offering lower prices.

1975 – Price of solar panels as a function of cumulative installed capacity
1975 – Price of solar panels as a function of cumulative installed capacity

The mechanism of this effect involves several interconnected processes. First, labor efficiency increases as workers become more dexterous. They gain mental confidence and spend less time hesitating or making mistakes. Second, companies often implement standardization and specialization. When employees focus on a limited set of tasks, they operate at a much faster rate. Third, technology-driven learning occurs as new automated systems are implemented. Finally, manufacturers often use product redesign to simplify the making of a good. This might include removing features that do not work well or adding parts that make assembly easier.

There are different ways to view these mathematical patterns. One common version is known as Wright's law. This law focuses on the relationship between cumulative production and labor time. Another version is the experience curve, a term used to describe broader cost behavior. While the learning curve focuses on production tasks, the experience curve includes administration, marketing, and distribution. These are often expressed as a power function. The math uses a progress ratio to predict how costs change. For example, an industry might have an "85% experience curve." This means costs drop by 15 percent every time the total output doubles.

The history of these ideas began with psychological research. In 1885, German psychologist Hermann Ebbinghaus studied verbal memory. He found that performance increased as people practiced with word sets. In 1936, an engineer named Theodore Paul Wright applied these ideas to industry. While working at Curtiss-Wright in the United States, he studied aircraft production. He discovered that labor time fell by 20 percent every time total production doubled. Later, in the 1960s, Bruce D. Henderson of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) expanded this concept. He analyzed the semiconductor industry and found that prices often declined at a constant rate. He suggested that market share was a key driver for these savings.

Different industries show different rates of improvement. NASA has provided specific examples of these progress ratios. In the aerospace industry, the ratio is often around 85 percent. Shipbuilding shows a ratio between 80 and 85 percent. For repetitive tasks like electronics manufacturing, the ratio is higher, between 90 and 95 percent. Even raw materials show a high ratio of 93 to 96 percent. These numbers show that some industries learn much faster than others. These specific rates help companies plan their long-term investments and pricing strategies.

There are also moments when these curves change suddenly. These are called experience curve discontinuities. A curve might be truncated when a company must upgrade its technology to stay competitive. This happens when competitors introduce entirely new processes. It can also happen when a major technological change makes old methods obsolete. When a firm upgrades, the old curve is replaced by a new one. This forces companies to constantly re-evaluate their strategies to avoid falling behind. If a company fails to show these learning effects, it faces a significant business risk.

The experience curve connects to many broader economic ideas. It is closely related to economies of scale, which are efficiencies gained from large-scale production. Some experts, like Ernst R. Berndt, argue the two are almost impossible to separate. It also connects to network effects, where a product becomes more useful as more people use it. For instance, email becomes more efficient as more accounts are created. Finally, the effect relates to strategic management. Companies use these insights to decide whether to enter a market or exit a business to focus on more profitable areas.

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